my assessment of Gold. welcome comments as always!!!

Regards,

Manish

Dear Manish,

I am not an expert on EW, but (4)th wave piercing in territory of (1) does not fit in basic impulse rules under EWP.
Can u pls advise on ur thought process to label this structure as impulse?

regards
nitin

Hi,

Many people have mailed me with regards to my wave count pointing that wave 4 is overlapping wave 1. My thoughts on this observation is as follows:

1)The chart in my wave count is of Continuous Future contract of Gold and not of spot gold. Prechter's book states that in some cases of leveraged assets wave 4 can graze thru wave 1 but that too minutely. In case of my chart the overlapping has been to the extent of $1.84. So my wave count presumes that the overlap is not a genuine one as is caused due to leverage inherent in future contract.

2)Second scenario assumes that if the overlap is a genuine one, then wave under formation from the high's of $1790 is a leading diagonal and is a part of larger extended impulse wave.

3)According to third scenario my wave count is wrong all together. In that case I would welcome alternate wave counts. But right now I'm not too eager to do a new wave count.

Regards,

Manish

Manish - more or less similar with your count expcept i am going with A-B-C from 1786 fall, where C wave with 5th wave extended. The present wave you could take either as bullish or bearish scenario as A-B-C completed. With Dollar Index is still looking strong, my preferred count is A-B-C which is forming Wave 'X'. Alternate count could be Wave 1 and 2 completed, and Wave iv of wave (i) of Wave 3 in-progress....

I have attached Gold weekly chart , only major waves are identified here, wave 2 running flat and wave 4 as a triangle, Here i see a descending triangle is formed in uptrend.
If a descending triangle fails ie. if breaks upside then the break out would be sharp.

1650 is very crucial and then the trendline sloping downward, if it breaks upside we may see gold moving around 1900 or plus.

Sorry file was not attached