Reading through all the International biggies on the subject of Technical Analysis, forced me to think ... whether we have a quantifiable sentiment indicator for the country in which we trade....

And NO posts in this section just provides me with proof ... tht there are a few ... if not none ....


So why dont we ..here at ATMA... have one for ourselves... we all here are learning to make an educated guess at the future.... lets channel it ...

Lets see ... if we are still humans ... that we still become a part of the crowd phenomena ... and be wrong at the market turns ....


What we can have here ... is an ANONYMOUS POLL ...guessing the NIFTY target over 2 or 3 expiries..

Polling can be weekly ... where a member can vote once every week... inbetween the time window allotted ... say VOTING ON MONDAY...etc...

further refinings can be done to this notion before we have a practical model that we can test ...


Lets see how we all are influenced by optimism, greed, fear and pessimism...

Hi, i appreciate the idea of creating a sentiment index but i don't think that just by taking votes from a bunch of 50-60 people will give any conclusion as markets are influenced by a very large group of investors, especially the institutional investors.

I dont think sentiment index can be measured by voting at all. Sentiment only works at extremes, because only at the extremes its very clear. in the middle it keeps happening on a smaller scale thus indicating peaks & bottoms of various natures but overall it only works well on an extreme case basis. Its very easy to figure out extreme sentiment without actually needing an index or poll for that.

Regards
Anand Sancheti

I have been inspired to build an "Tipsters Sentiment Index" on which i will start working as soon as time permits me to.

Logic::
Determine most followed personalities on Moneycontrol/FB groups (what i call desi advisors ) etc
Hire a chap to Analyze these personalities market calls generated daily


& try to see if something significant comes to fore.It will take couple of months to get something workable.

Nikhil any update on building the index ... seems lik an interesting idea

I deleted my social networking accounts few months ago. Yes having lots of posters who post free views on such sites have served me very well in terms of contrarian trading idea generation.
I now have a much better approach for determining sentiments , With experience our analysis improves so a time comes when it really doesn't matter what is the view of masses, having few trusted traders is more than enough for contrarian idea generation. Try to have contact with 10-20 profitable traders and have understanding of their strengths and weaknesses. For example a trader i know is very good and he is long a particular market , i am bearish on the same market in which he is Long. I understand his strengths and i don't short that particular market until the individual tells me he is not Long anymore. If i become short when he is long i am most certainly be hitting my SL , but when he is out and i short then i usually end up with a winner. My point is having constant interaction with other "practicing traders" instead of FB/Twitter Analysts is more beneficial for our own holistic growth.